United States: Cooling Labor Market Without a Recession, but with Stickier Inflation

The Analytical Department of Rioni Capital LLC has released a U.S. macroeconomic review as of May 2026. By mid-June, the macroeconomic picture in the United States remains mixed, but it is already sufficiently well defined. The labor market has cooled noticeably compared with the second half of 2025, although it has not yet shown signs of sharp deterioration. Business activity remains in expansion territory, consumers appear weaker in sentiment than in actual spending, and the inflation picture has become more complicated again due to rising energy prices and firmer PCE and CPI data. In other words, the economy’s baseline regime is now closer to a slowdown than to a recession, while the Federal Reserve’s main challenge is not a downturn as such, but rather the combination of moderate growth and inflation above target.

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